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The relative importance of the truth


Dear Saudi friends,

I cannot believe this is happening again.

A year ago, I was studying your country’s communication, as part of a masters in Geopolitics I had started, and I saw it. Those people were arrested, sent to the Ritz. And for 3 days, you kept quiet. Western media were covered with news that this was a power grab. Only after 3 days, we were told that no, this was not a power grab, this was an anti-corruption thing. Nobody really spoke on behalf of Saudi Arabia, not that I know anyway, I suppose it was just a press release or something.

And then, 3 weeks after the arrest, the Crown Prince actually gave an interview to Western media and there he said that this was obviously not a power grab, that this was a anti-corruption thing. It seemed absolutely obvious to him it was not a power grab.

I believed him but it almost made me smile because the truth is, three weeks after the facts, it didn’t matter anymore what it was. Three weeks after the facts, people in the West no longer gave a flying f**k what this really was. And as a result, that interview barely got coverage. Cold news.

We are now a year later, Prince Al-Waleed himself went 3 times on record with major media to say this was a anti-corruption thing, and people in the West still don’t really believe it was a anti-corruption thing. Do the media really believe it was a power grab, I don’t think so, but they will still occasionally wave that red scarf because it gets the bull excited and also because the last thing the media want is to be seen as complacent with those in power in Saudi Arabia, that crazy country where crazy things happen.

Because to be honest, it seems to me the Ritz-Carlton thingy has reached this special status. There is a special status in Western media for those-crazy-things-crazy-Arabs-do-we-dont-understand-really-but-we-have-ceased-to-care-its-beyond-us-let-them-do-their-thing-whatever.

And despite the fact that this happened last year with the consequences we still see this year, I have a feeling that something similar is happening.

Do you realize how frustrating it is for me to watch this happen again?

I really don’t know who makes those decisions about how Saudi Arabia should respond when shit hits the fan, about how Saudi Arabia should handle their crisis communication, but boy, if that person exists, I’d like a word, please.

It seems to me there is one basic truth in crisis communication and you might not be getting it.

It is much easier to influence someone while they are still in the process of making their judgment about something, than to prove them wrong once they have a solid opinion about something even if that solid opinion is actually mistaken.

In other words, the truth is of relative importance. The timing is what matters a lot nowadays. So much for "Let's get the facts, let's wait till the investigation is over."

Why is that? Because people are lazy, and overwhelmed. People in the West are particularly overwhelmed. I am quite sure someone who knows how the human brain works could explain this is using scientific words and concepts, but basically, we do that job of forming an opinion once, and then we put that opinion on a shelf and we are happy to forget about it, because something else is coming, some other controversy we need to make a judgment on.

And once that opinion is on a shelf, it takes an amazing amount of energy and truly solid evidence to convince anybody that they should get that opinion off its shelf and just reconsider. Even if you come with solid evidence, most people won’t reconsider, they’ll leave that opinion on the shelf, whether it is correct or not. Also because people hate to admit they were wrong in the first place. For those who will reconsider, it will only be a patch but the initial opinion will actually remain there. It will take an effort each time to remember the initial opinion was wrong and that there is a patch.

Human thinking 101. Quite sure this is how it works.

Bottom line, you only get one chance.

I am quite sure that sooner or later, Saudi Arabia will produce evidence about what truly happened in the Khashoggi case, and I am quite sure this evidence will prove that the Crown Prince was not involved in Jamal Khashoggi’s tragic death. I am quite sure that the Crown Prince himself will come forward at some point to say he did not order Jamal Khashoggi’s death. It will get some media coverage but how many people will actually reconsider an opinion that’s already solid?

I think people in the West have convinced themselves that the Crown Prince had a journalist killed because he disagreed with him. That opinion, or something just barely less negative, is now on a shelf and I am afraid that regardless of what the Crown Prince might say, most people in the West won’t reconsider. Normal people have moved on to another storyline, they are happy thinking what they think because it is consistent with their overall vision of the world. Is it unfair? Yes, it is, it’s very unfair.

I said it before, the Crown Prince’s silence actually made him look guilty. On day 1, I thought he was innocent, but then over time, not seeing him come forward to say he was innocent, even I grew doubts. I thought that maybe I had misread this man, I questioned my ability to judge people, I lost weight and sleep on this.

If I met him now, I’d apologize for doubting him, but it would certainly have helped if he had done a proper speech at the Future Investment Initiative, instead of making a joke about the fact that Saad Hariri was not kidnapped this time (oh wow).

I understand it must have been a shock to him to see that so many people, so easily called him an assassin, and I imagine this is the reason why he didn’t speak, your Crown Prince is a sensitive man but without a doubt, this silence is what aggravated his case.

You have no idea how unsettling those last few weeks have been for me. You have no idea the frustration I have from not being able to help, from seeing this happen all over, from knowing that possibly this will happen again.

I really don’t know who reads this column, but seriously, either someone hires me to help you, or I need to find a way to detach myself from you, Saudi Arabia. I can’t keep watching how you get screwed because you don’t get ready for those battles and because you don’t engage when the battle actually starts. You are such good, honest people, I swear to God. I am finding you incredibly touching because of this, but at the same time, I cannot remember I have ever been this frustrated by someone’s inability to defend themselves when it’s really needed.

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